Friday, January 25, 2013

Money Not Enough #2

I did not just give up. I want some alternative answer to know how stock market works. There should be a way to understand the shares price movement. So, I went to bookstore to look for some books and one of the book title get my attention “How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market” by Nicolas Darvas. I flip through some pages, this is interesting and will help me to shed some light of what I want to know.

My 1ststock market book really a slow pace reading of real life Nicolas Darvas. I learned about share prices enter and exit that base on boxes. How he use it to win the market. I still not convince myself to move into the market.

I search more about Malaysia stock market in the internet. Finally I found a few blogs talking about stock. Every day I was following their chat room as silent reader only - as I don’t know what to say since I was newbie afraid that I will be a laughing stock when I ask silly question or talk nonsense. Day by days I started to understand more about the stock market. I apply OSK188 online stock quotes subscription as per recommended. I am begin to active in the blogs chat room, asking question, helping others as per what I know even I also consider as newbie.

I started to get involve in stock trading in 2nd half of 2005 with my starting capital of RM20K. Well, it is not a happy trade. I still make lost most of the time. Whatever I win will be short live, the market going to take away my winning money sooner or later. Most of the time I did successful buying before any price spike, but I fail to know which price direction it will go. I still tend to like holding on the stocks and hope! In the end later market is eating up my profit and end up become loss.

To be continue...

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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Election Jitters Push KLCI Down 2.4%

KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 21): The benchmark FBM KLCI plunged 40.8 points or 2.4% to a five-week low in active trade as the deadline for the 13th general election draws near amid political rumours.

This single day fall of 2.4% has not been seen in eight months, and the market’s volume of 1.83 billion shares was close to a 10-month high.

Election jitters resurfaced after many people received text messages stating that Parliament would be dissolved on Feb 22. If this is the case, then the general election is likely to be held by mid-March.

According to the Constitution, the government of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak must call for an election by April 27, but to hold the federal election together with some state elections, he must call it earlier.

While most research analysts believe Najib will regain control of the federal government, albeit by a smaller margin, there are rumours circulating that there are some quarters within his own political party Umno who are lobbying for his downfall.

"It will be bad for the stock market if Najib is not returned to power. He is very business-friendly," said a senior dealer.

Lee Cherng Wee, senior research analyst at JF Apex Securities, told "The specific election risk to our country is causing the sell-down by local and foreign funds. This had happened in past elections."

At 5pm, the KLCI had fallen 40.81 points or 2.4% to 1,635.63, after touching an earlier low of 1,630.99. The plunge was caused by major falls in index-linked heavyweights, such as Axiata, Public Bank, CIMB, Maybank and Sime Darby, which were also top turnovers due to their heavy trades.

Losers thumped gainers by 904 to 85, while volume traded was 1.83 billion shares worth RM2.6 billion, which had not been seen for months.

According to dealers, the market was also affected by a report today in The Edge Financial Daily and that many investors recently discovered that confidential information in their CDS accounts on Bursa Malaysia had been leaked to strangers. But the dominant factor was still the pre-election jitters.

The local market plunged by as much as 1.6% in mid-morning trade and continued to deteriorate after the lunch break.

Asian shares pulled back from multi-month highs today, while the yen firmed after touching a new low in choppy trade ahead of a Bank of Japan policy decision that is expected to deliver bold monetary easing measures.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged down 0.2% despite pockets of strength in Australia, Hong Kong and Shanghai. The index briefly renewed a 17-1/2-month high touched on Friday following a rebound in global equities late last week on upbeat US and Chinese data, as well as signs of progress in US budget talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended Friday at five-year highs on a solid start to the quarterly earnings season. US markets are closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday.

"Asian markets are mixed with no dominant theme in place in a fairly quiet start to the week," said Stan Shamu, market analyst at IG Markets. "There hasn't been any economic data to go by in the region and therefore we've had to rely on leads from the weekend for some direction."


Monday, January 21, 2013

Asean To Grow By 5.3% This Year

The economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) including Malaysia is expected to expand slightly faster to 5.3% this year from 5.2% in 2012, said the Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd (EIU).
"As open economies, Asean members have been adversely affected by weak demand in the West and in China. But fundamentals are generally positive and Indonesia, by far the largest economy in the region, has proved resilient," it said in a report on Global Forecast for February 2013 released yesterday.
"We forecast another year of decent growth for Asean in 2013. The subregion will continue to do well in the rest of the forecast period, with annual growth averaging 5.8% between 2014 and 2017."
The EIU sees Asean, which is benefiting from China's emergence as an economic power, continuing to attract high levels of foreign investment.
However, it warned that like China, faced with subdued demand from Western markets, Asean economies will need to undergo a structural shift to lessen their dependence on exports and derive more growth from domestic demand.
"Indonesia, whose large economy makes it less dependent on external demand than other Asean members, is better placed to achieve such a shift than some of its neighbours. Sentiment towards Indonesia has dulled during 2012 as the current account has moved into deficit and the currency has weakened.
"But its fundamentals are solid and we expect Indonesia to achieve strong sustained growth over the medium term. By 2017 its economy, measured at market exchange rates, is forecast to be larger than that of South Korea," said the EIU.
The unit also expects inflation for Asean to rise to 4.4% this year, from 4% in 2012.
Globally, the EIU forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 2.3% at market exchange rates in 2013 and by 3.3% at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates, which give more weight to emerging markets.
"The global economy will remain weak, but some improvement is in prospect.
"The downturn in the euro zone will ease, with the 17-country bloc likely to return to very weak year-on-year growth in late 2013," it said.
It also believes that recent stimulus in China should feed through more visibly during the year, with Chinese growth accelerating to an annual average of about 8.5%— although it should be noted that this will be a peak for the current cycle and is unlikely to be matched again given the slowdown in China's trend growth rate.
US Congress's Jan 1 mini-deal on the "fiscal cliff" removed an immediate threat to US growth prospects, but how the world's biggest economy performs in 2013 will depend on the extent to which the next few months are marred by similar fiscal policy showdowns.
"The key downside risk to our forecasts will remain the possibility of further financial upheaval in the euro zone. But upside risks are arguably strengthening, in particular over the timing of the modest global recovery, which could gather pace sooner than we expect if confidence returns," said the EIU.


Sunday, January 20, 2013

ALAM Got Strength For Higher

Will ALAM trend higher and chase up PERDANA? I would say high possibility! From my observation and my little instinct say it may go towards 1.50 and possible 1.80 as well after CNY.
Before such optimistic view materialized, the 1st thing need to observe is the current level upside support which stay at 86/87 need to hold up well enough! Once it stay there it will have more chances to shoot till 1.06/1.07. In order to reach to level 1.50~1.80, again we need to watch carefully the next support 91/92. If this level break loose than we may forget about this target in short term! But I do not foresee it would happen! I still believe ALAM have potential to trend higher in coming three month! Can ALAM do it? We shall see then...  :-)

Happy Trading and Cheers!

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Exciting Future For Malaysia Oil And Gas Industry

TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL: Billions of ringgit going into risk service contracts, more oil discoveries plus billions to spend in capex.

THE future looks stimulating for the local oil and gas industry, with billions of ringgit of investments going into risk service contracts (RSCs), more discovery of deepwater reserves, plus tens of billions of ringgit in upstream capital expenditure (capex).

The potential in technologically demanding areas such as enhanced oil recovery, asset integrity, integra-ted operations and deepwater exploration is expected to provide opportunities for local players to develop indigenous technology.

Besides marginal fields development, analysts and industry players see the merger between SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Kencana Petroleum Bhd into SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd, the liquefied natural gas regasification terminal and the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex, as major highlights of the industry in the year 2012.

According to Frost & Sullivan, Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is expected to award more RSCs to potential oil and gas industry players for the development of marginal fields with at least 22 identified for this year onwards, with estimated investments of RM22 billion.

"Considering around RM750 million to RM1 billion per field cluster for development, the total expenditure for 22 marginal fields could be RM16.5 billion to RM22 billion," Frost & Sullivan director of energy practice Subramanya Bettadapura told Business Times.

Currently, he said, RSCs for three marginal fields have already been signed and more RSCs are expected to be signed from this year onwards.

Out of the 105 marginal fields identified under the Economic Transformation Programme, as announced in 2010, he said 25 fields have been marked for development under the new RSC arrangement.

The first RSC for the development of Berantai marginal field offshore Peninsular Malaysia was awarded in January 2011 to a consortium comprising Petrofac Energy Development Sdn Bhd, holding a 50 per cent working interest, and Kencana Energy Sdn Bhd and Sapura Energy Ventures Sdn Bhd (each holding a 25 per cent interest).

This was followed by the award of the SFRSC licence on August 2011 to ROC Oil Holdings Sdn Bhd, with a 48 per cent interest, Dialog Group Bhd (32 per cent) and Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd (20 per cent) for the development of Balai cluster fields offshore Bintulu, Sarawak.

In July last year, a RSC licence was awarded to a group comprising Coastal Energy (70 per cent interest) and Petra Energy Bhd (30 per cent) for the development of Kapal, Banang and Meranti cluster of small fields offshore Peninsular Malaysia.

On the prospect of the development of marginal fields, Subramanya said small platforms such as mobile offshore production units and small floating, production, storage and offload vessels are the solutions for developing such small fields.

"With more marginal fields coming into the concept development stage, there are further opportunities for the providers of the solutions to compete," he said when asked on the outlook for the Malaysian oil and gas industry in 2013 as well as its progress last year.

Moving forward, Subramanya said Malaysia has the potential to become the regional hub for oil and gas in this region, especially in the deepwater and services segment.

"Malaysia's deepwater reserves potential is estimated to be 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bboe). Of this, only three bboe have been discovered so far. So, this leaves another seven bboe yet to be discovered," he said.

In terms of investment, Subramanya said the upstream capital expenditure is estimated to be upwards of RM75 billion for the next four years. Besides the development of marginal fields, he said other major highlights of last year are the merger of SapuraCrest Petroleum and Kencana Petroleum to form SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd; Malaysia's first liquefied natural gas regasification terminal in Sungai Udang, Malacca; and the development of RM135 billion Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex in Johor.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Oil and Gas Services Council president Sofiyan Yahya said the next few years will present a period of great opportuni-ties for the local oil and gas services sector as a direct impact of the major investments made by Petronas.

"With the number of projects in the coming years that will keep the industry busy, it will also be an opportunity for the local services sector to be creative and innovative, and promote Malaysia as a centre of research and development.

"The potential in technologically demanding areas such as the enhanced oil recovery, asset integrity, integrated operations, deepwater exploration and other challenges mean that we have greater opportunities to develop our own technology, and in future be able to export homegrown expertise.

"The oil and gas industry has always been a global industry, and the Malaysian services sectors are now familiar with working to global standards as part of the normal business delivery, therefore there is no better time to grow into international players on the platform of the boost of activities locally and in the region in the coming years."

Shell Malaysia chairman Iain Lo said Malaysia's economic resilience in 2012 was remarkable, especially against the backdrop of a European financial crisis and sluggish growth in China. The year saw the growth in domestic demand for energy that required the industry to draw on all its resources.

"As an industry, we have made investments to increase capacity over the years, so we are able to meet the demand growth. The Gumusut-Kakap development, a deepwater joint venture between Petronas, Shell, ConocoPhilips and Murphy, is an example - its early production added 25,000 barrels per day of oil to the country's production.

"To address issues pertaining to production decline, we will continue investing in new fields as well as extending the life of existing fields with the aim to maintain the production levels," he said.

For example, he said, Shell is working with Petronas Carigali to extend the life of the oil fields in the Baram Delta and North Sabah by employing new enhanced oil recovery technology.


Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Money Not Enough #1

Five years pass after my first exposure in the stock market. Year 2003, life changed, I have more debts now than years before. Paying my debts totaling RM2.3K monthly came from car, house and credit card! This left behind RM1.2K for my expenses (deducting insurance payment, petrol, tolls, household usage, utilities bills, foods and some personal spending) and saving (can I save?)!

My investment values now turn even worse than five years before from RM5.5K now stood at RM3K. TANCO now 20cts and MULPHA now 40cts. I was hopeless, stock market really killing me. There is no use for long term investment. It has been five years but what I see now? The values of the shares going down and not going up! For newbie or ordinary investor, I will not going to lost such big money by selling out the shares. The only way is to hope for it to raises back to the price where I buy previously which in this case TANCO RM1.9x and MULPHA 1.3x.

I started to look for alternative side income. I started to join direct sales, become insurance agent and unit trust agent. From this business I generate a monthly income of RM1.5K. I was satisfied with the income as part timer. At least I have room for breathe now for my expenses (if any) and saving. During initial stage as unit trust agent, I have been attending training, seminar and talks about market. I slowly understand but not really in full on how the overall market trend works. The training or seminar is about general market and funds knowledge, marketing, motivation and products. Most of the time when approaching my clients I follow what my senior advise - when market up BUY, when market down BUY or switch to low risk funds or bonds. Well, this is the way we earn commission.

There is one training I attended that totally change my view at the stock market. The presenter said “Why we need fund manager to take care of our client investment? If we invest by our self, this will be dangerous for us as we did not know when the stock is going up or down and which price is the best price to buy and sell. The fund manager are the only professional licensed and trained individual who know and able to look after your investment.” With this statement I am asking myself, can I be a fund manager? 

I asking my senior for clues and they said it is not an easy path. You need to be a CFA (Certified Financial Analyst) or have at least 2 years in financial industry and finally need to sit for exam of few modules from Securities Malaysia before get certified. My face was splash with cold water. How can I afford to forgo my current job and start fresh in financial industry? I will not even afford to live with that!

To be continue...

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Next: Money Not Enough #2

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Year of Snake Bodes Well for Malaysia

PETALING JAYA (Jan 9, 2013): The Chinese year of the water snake, which starts from Feb 4, 2013 midnight will be a good year for Malaysia in general, said Feng Shui master Joey Yap, adding that sectors that should do well include education, healthcare, oil and gas, plantations, technology, consumer, transportation and gaming.
On the other hand, sectors that may do poorly include property and insurance, he told some 400 investors attending CIMB's Malaysia Corporate Day on Monday. The one-day event saw 15 companies and five guest speakers participating and a key topic of discussion was the 13th general election (GE13).
"With regards to the possible election outcome, Joey Yap does not know the answer. But based on the political leaders' prospects looking at their dates of birth, (he said) Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak's prospects are better than that of Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim," said CIMB head of equity research Terence Wong in a note to clients yesterday.
"As for the talk by Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs founding president Tunku Zain Al-Abidin Muhriz on Malaysian politics, he believes elections will be held either in March or May/June after parliament expires in end-April.
"His view is in line with consensus that the ruling Barisan Nasional should win the elections with a narrower margin than the 2008 elections, but he thinks five or six states could fall to the Opposition including the five (Selangor, Penang, Perak, Kedah and Kelantan) that were lost in 2008 as well as an additional state," said Wong.
For CIMB, it reckons that 2013 could be a year of two distinct halves, with the first half (H1) likely to be volatile as GE13 has to be held no later than end-June, while the second half will be more promising,
Wong expects the stock market to rebound post-elections when risk appetite returns. although the pace of recovery would depend on the election outcome.
The research firm is maintaining its "neutral" weighting on Malaysia, with an end-2013 FBM KLCI target at 1,670 points. Its preferred sectors in the H1 include brewery, real estate investment trusts and utilities.

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Malaysia 4th Most Popular Investment Spot In Asia

While Malaysia will see its level of investment rise, executives at Western firms say they are concerned they are investing too little.
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia ranks fourth in Asia as a destination for investment by global multinational companies (MNCs), according to 2013 Asia Business Outlook Survey (ABOS).

The survey, done annually by The Economist Corporate Network, revealed concern about under-investment by global companies in Asia.

"Just over 40 per cent of global multinational companies plan to raise their investment in Malaysia in 2013, making the country the fourth most popular investment destination in Asia," the survey noted.

But while Malaysia will see its level of investment rise, executives at Western firms said they are concerned they are investing too little. The survey also revealed how regional business leaders are investing in and managing their operations in the Asia Pacific (Apac) region.

The 2013 survey, released yesterday, suggested that executives are buoyant about Asia in general, with almost half of respondents (47 per cent) saying expectations for their business in the region have risen over the past 12 months (as against 15 per cent for which they have fallen).

Companies are predicting that sales will grow at a faster rate in 2013 than last year for every Apac market excluding Japan. Given higher growth rates in Asia than other parts of the world, the region is rapidly gaining importance in the portfolio of operations at most global MNCs. 

For the 170 non-Asian companies in the survey (those with headquarters outside the region), Asia's share of global revenues rose from 19 per cent in 2011 to 22 per cent in 2012. Companies expect this figure to reach 32 per cent by 2017. But despite the optimism, 44 per cent of respondents said their firms are not hiring and investing at the right rate to capture the potential of Asia's growth.

While the growth rates that companies are recording in Asia may look impressive by Western standards, the ABOS survey suggested a more measured interpretation. For many global MNCs, their rate of sales growth in many Asian markets is lagging behind the underlying rates of economic growth.

Justin Wood, director of Southeast Asia at The Economist Corporate Network, said: "For the past couple of years, we have been picking up a gentle warning from Asia's international business leaders to their global headquarters.

"This year it has risen to a clarion call. International business is simply not investing enough to keep pace with Asia's expansion.

"The message just isn't getting through to London, New York and other global HQs. Too many Western boardrooms see impressive rates of sales growth coming out of Asia, and feel they are doing enough in the region. 

But when viewed correctly, growth rates in Asia are often lower than they should be, and suggest widespread under-investment. While many Western businesses are in the race, they are off the pace." 

Other key points highlighted by the survey are:

* Although non-Asian companies may be under-investing in Asia, they are gradually shifting management focus towards Asia. Thirty-eight per cent now have a board member in the region, double the percentage in 2008. More than half now have at least one global business unit head in Asia.

* While China dominates thinking, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc is being taken more seriously; 45 per cent of respondents now have an Asean strategy.

* The gap between China's performance and that of the rest of Asia is widening. As China's growth continues, companies are looking inland to tier 2, 3 and 4 cities for sales. However, many are not decentralising operations fast enough.

* The role of Hong Kong and Singapore as the region's traditional management hubs for global MNCs is under threat of overheating. 

* The way that global MNCs run their Asia Pacific operations is changing. One important trend is a realisation that Asia is becoming too big to manage as one region. Increasingly, China is being seen as a standalone territory, and managed separately to the rest of the region.

* The shortage of international school places in Hong Kong is affecting the city's ability to attract and retain both business and talent. This raises questions about Hong Kong's international competitiveness and its position as a regional hub in the future.

* Indonesia continues to attract investment - coming a close third behind China and India - but corruption is a major concern for most businesses operating in the country.

* Despite much talk of the importance of frontier markets, the business community remains cautious. Between 30 per cent and 40 per cent of companies said they have no interest in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Mongolia.

* Vietnam's fall from grace is reflected in a drop from fourth to sixth in the list of favoured investment destinations in Asia


Monday, January 07, 2013

Tough To Forecast Stock Market Performance

Tough to forecast stock market performance but analysts see improvement in H2.

LIKE the years before, it is difficult to predict how the stock market will perform this year. Suffice to say, there will be volatility, as a mix of good and bad factors come together.
The world's second-largest economy, China, for example, is beginning to turn in some favourable data such as a rebounding gross domestic product (GDP) and corporate earnings growth along with low inflation.
The same goes for the United States. In its 2013 outlook report for its clients, Nomura Equity Research says expectations are for US growth to bottom in the first quarter but from this challenging starting point, as growth accelerates over 2013, it believes that equity prices should move up ahead of strengthening data. Amid these, the eurozone's long-running debt issues are still expected to rear their ugly heads.
Locally, the impending general election widely expected to be in the first quarter will obviously be on everyone's minds, likely causing the market to be a little choppy, given the uncertainties of its outcome.
However, according to analysts, this is likely to improve in the second half of the year amid improving global economic conditions even as investors set their sights back on fundamentals post-general election.
Economically, the Malaysian economy performed better than expected in 2012, aided by large multi-billion ringgit infrastructure as well as other projects rolled out under the Economic Transformation Programme.
The central bank expects the economy to grow by at least 5% this year, buoyed by continuous domestic demand. Meanwhile, after companies reported less-than-expected earnings last year, analysts have slashed their earnings targets for this year, suggesting that corporate earnings are not moving in line with the growing GDP.
The macro view
With economies and markets closely linked, the entire global economic backdrop serves as an important market performance indicator across all equity markets. In the world's two largest economies, it would appear that things are becoming more palatable.
The slowdown in China, Malaysia's biggest trading partner, appears to have bottomed out, says the World Bank in a report. Its economists expect China to release GDP growth data averaging 7.9% for the whole of 2012, which is still higher than the official government target of 7.5%. For this year, China's GDP is forecast to grow at a higher 8.3%, driven by higher investments and fiscal stimulus according to them.
Over in the United States, its economy beat expectations by growing at a faster rate of 3.1% in its latest quarter. That data came in amid encouraging numbers from the property market, which showed the pace of home sales increasing by 5.9%, the highest in three years.
Given such circumstances, UOB KayHian research head Vincent Khoo reckons that external concerns have somewhat diminished.
“Positively, concerns of contagion effects from Europe have waned and the United states has averted the fiscal cliff scenario,” Khoo says.
A fiscal cliff would have seen a simultaneous move to increase taxes as well as cut spending in order to reduce the US budget deficit, which could then have sent the world's largest economy back to recession.
Khoo adds that continuing quantitative easing, particularly by the United States and Japan, and optimism on a turnaround in China would continue to fuel a near-term liquidity-driven global market.
Meanwhile, in a recent poll by a unit of OCBC Bank, fund managers surveyed believe that the US Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and its pledge to keep interest rates ultra-low for an extended period of time, along with its intention to continue to buy mortgage bonds and Treasuries indefinitely until the US sees a resounding pick-up, will help buoy the world's largest economy.
Still, not all fund managers are positive, with some having a neutral view of what is to come this year, the poll reveals.
ING Investment Management, for one, describes the outlook for stock markets this year as “tepid”, saying that fundamental drivers in the developed economies have yet to be discovered.
Closer to home, the economy performed better than expected last year and is forecast to grow 5% this year, supported by private consumption and investment.
These will be fuelled by the multiple incentives announced in Budget 2013 as well as other factors, including a healthy labour market, steady income growth and an accommodative monetary policy.
Key economic risks remain in the rising levels of household debt, with household debt-to-GDP levels at 76.7% as at end-September 2012 versus 75.4% in the second quarter.
Household borrowing, meanwhile, has increased by about 12.5% annually in the last decade.
Outlook and strategies
Market experts are pretty much adopting the stance they did last year, remaining generally defensive amid expectations of volatility.
The 30-stock FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) finished last year at 1,688.95 pointsgiving a total return of about 10.34%.
This compares with a marginal return in 2011.
RHB Research is advising its clients to stay defensive in the first half of this year, while taking advantage of market weakness during the period to buy into fundamentally robust stocks for “greater out-performance” in the second half.
Kenanga Research, meanwhile, will continue to adopt its trading stance, buying-on-weakness below the 1,610-point level and selling-on-strength above 1,710 points in a range-bound market environment.
UOB's Khoo says he expects the market to head for new highs this year post the election-consolidation period. UOB tentatively pegs its year-end target at 1,750 points based on around 13.8 times prospective price earnings, which has been consistent with the recent years' ending per earnings (PE) multiples. Khoo cautions that post-election, sentiment could be tempered by moderating economic growth amid slowing local consumption trends.
This would stem from the resumption of the previously-deferred energy and food subsidy reduction schedules, and the absence of pre-election fiscal packages.
Aberdeen Islamic Asset Management Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Abdul Jalil Abdul Rasheed notes that Malaysia's stock market is trading closer to 18 times PE now, making it increasingly difficult to find under-valued stocks.
“We are bottom-up stock picking investors,” he says of the fund's strategy.
Aberdeen has a total of US$4.4bil (RM13.46bil) invested in Malaysian equities across 32 stocks, making it one of the largest foreign institutional investors in the country. Its three largest local investments are in Public Bank BhdCIMB Group & Aeon Co (M) Bhd.
Nomura Equity Research says it is maintaining its base-case assumption that the ruling government would win by a majority.
“Thus, any weakness in the market would present a good buying opportunity.
“We are advocating a barbell strategy,” it notes in its 2013 market outlook report, saying that investors should position themselves adequately in the defensive sectors while starting to take on risk selectively ahead of the general election.
The banking group has raised its call to “overweight” from “neutral” for the telco sector and is maintaining its bullish stance on banks, construction, plantation, and oil and gas.
Sector-wise, Kenanga Research is generally bullish on banking, non-bank financial groups, oil and gas and power utility firms.
It is also optimistic on the consumer food and beverage sector as it believes that value has emerged following some recent price corrections.
UOB's Khoo advocates defensive sectors like airlines, telco and gaming this year, as well as the construction sector which he describes as a laggard.
Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew notes that foreigners were net buyers of Malaysian stocks towards the end of last year.
“A lot of foreign money got washed up on our shores but only into index-linked counters, the gains were not broad-based,” Pong says.
His pick for this year are the commodity companies which should attract higher demand for their products and services from the recovering world economies.


Saturday, January 05, 2013

My 1st Reaction as Stock Market Newbie #2

By end of 1996, both of my stock did increase in price especially TANCO, reaching RM4. Unbelievable! MULPHA only increase to RM1.5x. My dad advised me to sell, since I already earn the profit. But I did not listens, as I am believing that if I keep holding for more years, my price will slowly keep moving up as well, RM6, RM7 or RM10! He did not force me, so this is my decision. My RM15K now turn RM28K in a year. That is 86% more money from my saving! A lot better than putting in banks. Bank interest rate at that time, I think is 6%-9% if I not mistaken.

The ugly yet to come! By early 1997, both my stock start going down and down days by days, weeks by weeks and months past. I am seeing my saving going down, yet I still don't want to sell my holding as I expecting it to move up again! At the end of 1997, all of my RM28K turns RM5.5K (500% drop!). The worse is from TANCO, I can't believe it drop from RM4 to 50cts. Unbelievable! This really opened up my eyes. Really regret that I did not sell earlier when I have chance to do so, but instead choose to hope that it will rise again to level of 1996.

What happen to the market? Why the market behaving like this? I am asking myself. Dad told me, our country was hit by financial crisis. All shares price plunge to the lowest. A lot of major newspaper headlines talk about this crisis. At that time I do not know what financial crisis is all about and its impact to the economy. Just know that, there are many businesses struggling for survival and some close down and people have to ride thru the hard days ahead. My salary was deducted 10% every month due to this crisis. I am considered lucky as I still got my employment!

My shares got stuck now. My dad said just leave it, it will recover once the financial crisis over. I have no choice, so I just leave it since I am putting as my long term investment. I console myself that shares price can recover overtime. Actually my dad's stocks majority also got stuck and did not even make it to sell out! We both really got burned up in 1997/1998. 

Since then, I have negative perception on the stock market and I told myself to stop looking at the stock market and forget about it!

To be continue...

My Stock Trading Journey Stories
Previous: My 1st Reaction As Stock Market Newbie #1
Next: Money Not Enough #1

Tuesday, January 01, 2013

2013 1st Half Stock Picks

Happy New Year 2013! 
Below are the only three stock picks for my 1st Half of 2013. 
All of this stocks are spill over from 2012. 

Note: TIGER & MTRONIC now become as my alert list only. PERDANA outperform PERISAI & THHEAVY as my favorite O&G counter as for now.

Happy Trading and Investing. Cheers!