Thursday, November 29, 2012

DIGI Always The Smarter Choice

Yes, DIGI always the smarter choice! Do you agree with this tag line? Do you have problem with its network? Do you experience network speed and high availability issue? As per I know previously, Digi always have slow network, unstable and limited coverage area. That should be the reason it loss the market share (Maxis 38%, Celcom 33% and Digi 28%). In term of package now, I think Digi are cheaper compare to other Telcos (Maxis, Celcom). A few of my friends are changing to Digi because of cheaper package!

Do you know Digi currently in the midst of upgrading all the networks? They call it The Tomorrow Network across Malaysia and scheduled completing in 2013. Once ready, Digi will be Malaysia's 1st LTE-equipped network ready to serve fibre-like speeds to upcoming LTE mobile devices. The network coverage will expanded to 95% for its high speed EDGE, 3G with more stable networks and consistent speeds. How true is true? Well, I not really sure as I did not have the chance to FEEL it. Digi subscriber should be happy by now if the upgrading of networks works at your area. Must have the FEEL good factor! Hope this will improve their network performance and attract more subscribers and increase their market pies! Having all this set, than I will be in the waiting list for Digi . :)

Now lets see how is the stock performance? If we are going to invest in long run, I would say it will be a smarter choice to own Digi shares. The shares price able to sustain the broad market sell down in the pass few days and hitting low at RM4.50 (the important uptrend 40-day moving average). A rebound  from this level means that in futures, investor should looks at this level as important support before initiate any sell decision. The current resistance stood at RM5.00~RM5.30 which will indicate the direction it will be heading. Increase your position only when this level are convincingly breakout. Do take note that when shares price falling below the RM4.50, the next critical hold up level for Digi will be RM3.70~RM4.00 (100-day moving average). It seem there is possible this level will be tested if the market condition is not improving in coming months. 

Personally, I see the upside potential for Digi will be limited. It will be entering into consolidation mode soon (medium term) before further price advance can be seen in futures. Overall still a good stock for investment. Cheers!

Happy investing and Good Luck!

Stock Market To See 10% Earnings Growth In 2013

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 28, 2012): The Malaysian stock market is expected to see a 10% earnings growth next year, driven by the oil and gas (O&G), banking, construction, healthcare and manufacturing sectors, said Eastspring Investments Bhd CIO of equities, Yvonne Tan Hong Yean.

"Currently, it is about low teens of between 10% to 12%. We are expecting a 10% growth rate (for 2013), but much will depend on the crude palm oil (CPO) prices which are going to be low," Tan told reporters after presenting a paper on the Malaysian equity and bond outlook 2013 here yesterday.

She expects the current economic performance and activities under the government's Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) will contribute to the growth.

The local economy grew 5.2% in the third quarter of this year from a year ago, beating economists' estimate.

Tan said Bank Negara Malaysia's GDP forecast of between 4.5% and 5.5% for 2013 is achievable as domestic consumption remains strong and the accelerated public sector spending will support the rising domestic demand.

"We expect an investment revival, led by the private sector, especially in infrastructure and O&G spending," she said. Since its launch in October 2010, a total of 158 projects with total investment of RM231.4 billion has been announced under ETP.

She added that to date, O&G companies have won RM5.8 billion worth of contracts and the market is expecting an upcoming Pan Malaysia hook-up commissioning jobs worth RM10 billion as well as a few more risk-sharing contract marginal field or enhanced oil recovery brown field projects in the near to mid term.

On the impact of the upcoming general election (GE) on the stock market's growth, Tan said: "If the GE outcome is surprising, it may impact the market. When there are uncertainties in the market, investors will stay on sidelines."

She estimates the GE to be held at the end of first quarter 2013, as the election must be called before April 28 2013.

Tan also said Asian cyclical stocks could rally on any good news and valuations look generally attractive, but not all Asian markets are cheap.

"Those driven by the domestic growth look expensive and they could rise in line with profit growth."

Historically, she said Malaysian market is always high in valuation. So, it is seen as a more defensive market.

"In a bull run, it (Malaysian market) has always lagged behind but if there is a sell in the regional markets, it will outperform due to its defensive nature," she added.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

KLCI: Worse Yet To Come

It has been almost a year since my last coverage on KLCI direction. Today it trigger me to take a clear look at the index after hitting 1600 and close below it. To my surprise GOSH!!! What I can see here, only a red sea yet to come! I would advise those still holding big cap or blue chip or small cap to SELL on any rebound going forward (there would be a moderate rebound towards 163x level coming soon, if I am right). 

Once the rebound done, more downward pressure will be seen to test the intermediate support 1580 level (if that do happen!). I would say this level will not be strong enough to support the sell down. I foresee the sell down might dive to the level 1500, even 152x support will failed! Just my prediction.

Note: Just beware of 1400!!! For time being just look at 1500. We will see how again when time come.....Hopefully 1500 will be the end of the downtrend!

This is not the time to accumulate your stock for long term. Only accumulate for short-term trade on rebound. Sell is the only way for this bear market. Well, 2013 think will not be a good year for our market.  :-(

Hope there will be some small cap/penny stock that can run up. :-)

Happy Trading and Good Luck! 

[Previous KLCI Posting]

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

TIGER What's Next?

Today I make an entry @ 0.325. This will be my 3rd one, previous two trade is a very rush and high velocity trade but I manage to beat the TIGER. :-) How about this 3rd trade? I would say, there is still possible for downside, but I keep my cut-loss tight @ 0.315. If I loss I only will loss 0.010cts (hope it will not gap down!). This will be my risk factor. 

Base on my observation, there is still upside potential above 0.50! I would be paying more attention at 0.46 resistance when it do come. How about 0.41 resistance? Mmmm.. it will not be too hard to penetrate though. Hope I am right.

As for downside, it will dive towards 0.20 if the support 0.31/0.32 fail to hold up in coming few days time. Well, I hope this writing still can valid and not expire for next few days. Hahahaha

Cheers and Good Luck!

Friday, November 16, 2012

IMF Optimistic About Malaysia's Economy

Malaysia will be able to sustain its growth level with its gradual shift from a trade-based economy to a consumption-led one, says the International Monetary Fund
KUALA LUMPUR: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday placed high confidence in Malaysia's economy, saying that the country will be able to sustain its growth level with its gradual shift from a trade-based economy to a consumption-led one.

Its managing director Christine Lagarde was, however, concerned that despite Malaysia's strong initial public offering performance, foreign direct investment levels have not gone back to pre-crisis levels.

The "reasonably" high level of debt-to-gross domestic product ratio needs to be addressed, she said at a media briefing here yesterday.

The IMF chief is in Malaysia as part of her three-nation Asian tour which will also take her to the Philippines and Cambodia.

In her speech at a global public lecture hosted by the Malaysian Economic Association, Lagarde said although Malaysia has held up well so far with growth above 4.5 per cent, it remains in risky territory as with other Asian economies.

Growth will pick up again and Asia will retain its position as a growth leader, expanding two percentage points faster than the world average next year.

She also spoke about how the West could learn from Asia's own brush with the crisis in the 1990s, which has helped make the region's economic foundations safer, sounder and more resilient.

The IMF chief stressed on the need for American and European policy makers to act amid continued severe challenges faced by the advanced economies.

Although Asia has made strides in trade integration, it is still lagging in financial integration as reflected by the 90 per cent of Asean cross-border portfolio investment flows with advanced economies outside Asia, she said.

Greater regional financial integration can boost domestic demand, making it easier for small businesses in countries like Malaysia to gain access to credit and reduce inequality, she added.

Asia has a unique opportunity to get financial integration right and avoid the missteps and excesses of the West.

Lagarde also discounted the possibility of a global recession next year, saying the economy will grow by at least 3.6 per cent as policy makers continue to act.

When asked on Greece at the media briefing, she said a "real fix", not a "quick fix", was needed to help the country return to economic stability and enable it to re-access markets as soon as possible.

The tone of IMF towards Malaysia was one of appreciation yesterday as the fund acknowledged the country's leading role in building a financial firewall to boost its firepower for the 188-member body by US$461 billion, bringing the total lending power to over US$1 trillion.

She also praised Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, saying that her superior economic management has ensured that Malaysia is well protected and able to handle capital flows without being overwhelmed.

The overwhelming turnout was clearly impressed with Lagarde and her clear message of wanting the fund to have a more "engaging" presence in Asia.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Worst Of Europe's Debt Crisis Seems To Be Over

THE worst of Europe's financial crisis appears to be over.

European leaders have taken steps to ease the panic that has plagued the region for three turbulent years. Financial markets are no longer in a state of emergency over Europe's high government debts and weak banks. And this gives politicians from the 17 countries that use the euro breathing room to fix their remaining problems. 

Threats remain in Greece and Spain, and Europe's economy is forecast to get worse before it gets better. But an imminent break-up of the euro now seems unlikely, analysts say. 

"We are probably well beyond the worst," says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. He says occasional flare-ups in financial markets are likely, but "coming waves of turmoil will be less severe".

Evidence that Europe has turned a corner can be found in countries' falling borrowing costs, rising stock markets and a slow but steady stabilisation of the region's banking system:

* The interest rates investors are demanding to lend to struggling countries such as Spain and Italy have plunged - a sign that investors are less fearful about defaults. Spain's two-year bonds carry an interest rate, or yield, of just under 3 per cent, down from a July 24 peak of 6.6 per cent. Italy's bond yields have dropped just as sharply. 

* The Stoxx 50 index of leading European shares has surged 26 per cent since June 1, while the euro has risen from US$1.26 to US$1.29 over the same period. 

* After months of withdrawals, deposits are trickling back into Greek and Spanish banks, signaling that fears of their imminent financial collapse are abating. And US money market mutual funds loaned 16 per cent more to eurozone banks in September. That was the third straight monthly increase in short-term funding to European banks, and follows a 70 per cent reduction since May 2011. 

More proof the crisis is easing: Gatherings of European financial ministers no longer cause global stock and bond markets to gyrate with every sign of progress or a setback. 

As financial-market panic recedes, euro leaders have more time to try to fix the flaws in their currency union. Among the challenges are reducing regulations and other costs for businesses in order to stimulate economic growth, and imposing more centralised authority over budgets to prevent countries from ever again spending beyond their means. That's important because a major cause of the crisis was Greece's overspending during the calm years after the euro's introduction in 1999, and Italy's failure to cut the high levels of debt it joined with. Other governments - such as Spain and Ireland - were saddled with debt piled up by banks and real estate developers during boom years. 

Much of the credit for easing Europe's financial crisis goes to the European Central Bank (ECB), which has become more aggressive over the past year under the leadership of Mario Draghi. 

The ECB said on September 6 that it was willing to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds issued by countries struggling to pay their debts. The ECB's pledge instantly lowered borrowing costs for Spain and Italy, which earlier in the year had faced the same kinds of financial pressures that forced Ireland, Greece and Spain to seek bailouts. 

"Financial market confidence has visibly improved," Draghi said on Thursday during a press conference. 

The ECB's actions are reminiscent of some of the emergency steps the Federal Reserve (Fed) took after the US financial crisis struck in 2007. The Fed offered banks cheap loans, cut short-term interest rates to record lows and started buying bonds to ease long-term borrowing rates and boost the confidence of consumers and businesses. 

The Fed couldn't prevent the US from enduring its worst recession since the Great Depression. But its actions defused panic in the financial markets and helped restore the health of US banks. 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also helped ease financial tensions across Europe by speaking more forcefully about the need to hold the euro together. 

Merkel's support is critical because Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, has the most at stake financially in any bailouts. Merkel has backed the ECB's bond-buying plan and has made conciliatory statements toward Greece. 

That has paved the way for the so-called troika of international lenders - the ECB, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund - to allow Greece more time to meet deficit-reduction targets. The Greek Parliament took a big step on Wednesday toward securing its next batch of rescue loans from the troika by approving a new round of tax hikes and spending cuts. 

Another key breakthrough in the financial crisis came in late June, when leaders meeting in Brussels took new steps to steady banks and governments. They agreed to ease up somewhat on austerity demands; to use bailout funds to buy government bonds and help ailing banks; and to create a single supervisor for all of Europe's banks. 

Some analysts worry that as the financial pressure eases, Europe's leaders could lose their recent momentum. A break-up of the euro "is still possible", says Marie Diron, senior economic adviser to Ernst & Young. "I don't think we have removed the risk altogether." 

Europe's leaders have big challenges left. 

The most pressing is saving Greece. If the country was forced into a default and began printing its own currency, investors would assume other countries might go next and begin pulling their money out of those countries too, or demand higher returns to keep it there. The coming months could severely test Germany's new willingness to help. Despite two bailouts totaling (euro) euro240 billion (RM938 billion) since 2010, Greece needs an estimated euro30 billion (RM117 billion) more from the other eurozone countries as its economy shrinks. 

Berenberg's Schmieding thinks there's a 25 per cent chance that Greece will leave the euro in the next six months, if its parliament balks at painful austerity measures and euro members are reluctant to provide more help. But he thinks a Greek departure would cause "only temporary damage". Other economists think it could break up the euro. 

Another hotspot is Spain, the eurozone's fourth-largest economy. The country's debts are piling higher as its regional governments struggle and its economy shrinks. The ECB's offer two months ago to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds is a potential life-saver, but the country's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy needs to formally request such aid. He has held off, apparently hoping the current market calm will last and he won't suffer the political humiliation of taking a bailout. Analysts say that if he waits too long Spain's borrowing costs could rise again to unsustainable levels and reignite broader fears in financial markets. 

Banks are another problem. Weakened by massive losses on the government bonds they bought and real estate loans that aren't being repaid, banks across the eurozone have been propped up by governments that are themselves struggling financially. Even with the help, these banks have been forced to reduce lending, which has hurt Europe's economy. 

A banking supervisor for all of Europe could provide some relief, by forcing crippled banks to merge with healthier ones. But it will be the second half of next year, at the earliest, before the supervisor is in place, banking analysts say. European leaders disagree over how much authority to give the supervisor and how to fund it. 

Economic growth is what would ultimately end Europe's crisis. But robust growth remains far off. The European Union forecast on Wednesday that the 17-nation eurozone economy would grow just 0.1 per cent in 2013. 

Privately, European officials say the ECB's bond-buying plan has afforded them a crucial window of opportunity - a year, perhaps - to resolve their biggest challenges. 

Much depends, they say, on what gets accomplished in that time. AP

Saturday, November 10, 2012


TAKASO, the name is so hot for the last 2 weeks. Charging to 0.40 before heavy profit taking! The sell down was surprising too strong! Going below 0.32 which make me feel little uncomfortable. So, still have upside? Yes, if it still hold strong above 0.27. There should be a rebound coming next weeks. I would be looking for a trade and sell at resistance 0.35 if possible. By than I think it will move side ways for a while and we will see how it goes for the next target.

BENALEC, behave well and steady at the moment. Still unwilling to go down 1.28/1.29 :-) Good sign. It looks like going to test 1.42/1.43 for the 3rd time. If this can go through, than we are going for 1.70/1.80. I will be joining the boat then, yeah!. if this fail, time to looks for 1.28 and 1.35 support for the next direction.

Happy Trading and Good Luck!

Monday, November 05, 2012

Sandy May Slow Malaysian Economy In Short Term

KUALA LUMPUR: Hurricane Sandy will not have a major impact on the Malaysian economy as the calamity will only affect the global economy in the short run, said S Das & Associates Pty Ltd consultant Satyajit Das.

“I don't think it will have a major impact in the long run because in the short run it will have a reduction in growth obviously in this quarter and probably in the next quarter.

“The reconstruction part of it will be funded by reinsurance from outside the United States.

“What happens is that some things you can control and some things you don't control.

“You are going to be impacted by this but the degree to which you will be affected is unknown and you have been a beneficiary in a year or so of certain things like when Japan made a decision to turn off its nuclear plant, it is very good for your LNG exports,” he told reporters after delivering an afternoon talk titled “The End of Growth?” yesterday.

Hurricane Sandy's economic toll is expected to exceed US$20bil after the biggest Atlantic storm slammed into the Eastern US, damaging homes and offices and flooding subways in America's most densely populated city.

Sandy, spanning about 1450 km, slammed into southern New Jersey on Monday and brought a record storm surge of 4.2 m into Manhattan's Battery Park while flooding, high winds and fallen trees cut power to about eight million customers from South Carolina to Maine and travellers were stranded as US airlines grounded more than 16,000 flights.

US stock trading closed back-to-back earlier this week in the first back-to-back shutdown for weather since 1888. “You will be a beneficiary because your interest rate is high relative to developed markets. What we have seen is a lot of capital flows which is very helpful in funding your development and so forth,” he said.

“If the US, Europe, China and Japan which make up 70% to 80% of the world's (economy) and if their demand goes down, it is difficult not to see Malaysia not to get impacted. It is a question of degree. I think you can protect yourself a bit as you have some good industries like obviously the petroleum industry and agriculture,” he added.

Das is also an author and an international specialist in financial derivatives and capital market, with over 30 years' experience in the financial market.

The afternoon talk was organised by the Malaysian Investment Banking Association. - Bernama

Saturday, November 03, 2012

THHEAVY, TIGER: My Trading Diary

Here is another write up about my recent trade. I am using it for my personal reference of what I have failed and achieved. It will be as a guide for me in future about my plan and execution as well as mistake made during the trade. Here is the story.

THHEAVY Day 1 (Wed) 31/Oct: On the morning I saw headline news that THHEAVY have lift from PN17 status. So I was guessing it would be a good trade, either push up or sell down. I have a quick look at the chart, and a simple plan was set since the time was almost 9am to start the bell. My plan is to buy on the way it move down and buy some at higher price. So I queue at 0.62 and 0.605. I was looking for support at 0.60 but did not set my exit plan! Without notice, by sudden I got my match and the price did push up to 0.63, after a while it weakening and dive lower and hit my another queue at 0.605. Now I was waiting to see if it can go up, but instead go more lower broken the support and hit 0.59 and it bounce up. My feeling of doubt and concern set in, I need to average again my price and looking for exit if possible (here you go, this is my emergency exit plan?) I buy again at 0.595 to make up my average buy price 0.60. Now I was waiting to see if it can breakout from the resistance @ 0.60. I have been waiting for hours but it seem like there is no clear signal it will push up and at the end I exit the trade at 0.595, making a small loss of 0.05cts. The mistake here is no clear plan of what target I want to go, either wanted to earn 2-3cts or hold for higher price.

THHEAVY Day 2 (Thu) 01/Nov: Today I have my trade plan ready! Cut loss @ 0.565 and Profit Target 0.68. Buy lower 0.57/0.58. All my queue was match and another small sell down happen to hit 0.56. I start to look for bounce. It looks like bounce, I set an emergency buy again at 0.565 to average my price now to 0.575. Why I want to average down? As refer from the chart (a) and (b) those are resistance and support line. By buying on average, it will reduce my losses? Nope, I was greed and I know the price will fluctuate between both line and if it goes wrong I can exit just at 0.57 or 0.575 without much loss. If this can't breakout from 0.59, and close a bit higher I will make profit! This are the risk I was taking. Of course, a tight execution and control needed for this kind of trade. Now, I was looking a bounce above 0.58 but too sad to say it did not happen. Suddenly, my attention was attracted to TIGER when I view the top 10 list. TIGER was on the big sell down! My instinct trigger me to enter TIGER @ 0.32. But I told myself, I need to see how the sell down in TIGER, is there any bounce! After a while TIGER did bounce up strongly and this influence me to give up THHEAVY! So I decided to sell THHEAVY immediately at 0.575 before morning session close and ready for TIGER!

THE TIGER SHOW Day 1 (Thu) 01/Nov: I was doing analysis from within my mind, today high at 0.49 and low 0.30. A rebound and close at 0.335. All base on line chart from my mobile. Well, looks good. :-) I see there is high chance it will go trending. Market open and price open at 0.34, I was not entering yet and still looking at how the buying and selling pattern from my mobile! Finally I make a move and buy at 0.345 and later the price shoot till 0.40. It was my excited moment! Time for payback from my failed trade in THHEAVY. Hahahahaha... The price was range bound between 0.40-0.42 make it feel like it will push up higher and I decided not to sell out my holding at market close (since I was riding on my profit) and my trailing stop is set at 0.36. So what to worry? :-) From the closing, I foresee it may hit double top area at 0.49 tomorrow!

THE TIGER SHOW Day 2 (Fri) 02/Nov: Bravo! I have done detail study and now my profit target would set to 0.60. But will lock in my profit at 0.47 1st. This is my plan. Now market open with price 0.415 and high 0.425. After a while, the resistance is strong, big lots was throw down. I was bit fear of my profit squeeze! I make a decision to exit first at price 0.415. Later the price dive and hit 0.36 without notice a while it back up to 0.40. At that time I was so convince again that it will move higher and I was ready to make entry again (buyback). So, I buy in again at price 0.405 and now I set my trailing stop at 0.39/0.40 and queue my sell price at 0.465. Later the price looks stable at this level and I was waiting for shoot up. It take hours to build this base and at 3pm the volume start active and push up the price and I got my price match 0.465 half hour later. That's conclude my 1st trade with profit! I was planning to make a 2nd trade again with the target of 0.60.

Conclusion: The rule! A proper plan, execution and exit strategy. Be flexible to change or revise your plan on any target hit and unforeseen scenario in such volatility price movement. Strict execution! I think that should be it for my case. :-)

Here is summary about both stock direction.

THHEAVY Direction: The only way it will go up is to clear the resistance (b) line! Since it make an attempt few time but did not able to break the 0.58/059. There is high chance that the price will push lower towards the next support at 0.52/0.53, it also might slowly move lower towards 0.50 before any price recovery seen.

TIGER Direction: Here is my plan for next week. I will set my cut loss at 0.44/0.45 (this will be critical support, will try to buy at this level to minimize my loss if happen) If this can hold up well, 0.58/0.60 is reachable. I predict it will move more higher with such strength as of now! If the price can break 0.60 and 0.50 supporting well, I will enter again for my 3rd trade, but this time will hold on to my stock!

Happy Trading and Good Luck!