Monday, October 05, 2009

Timely Boost For Market?

IN the past three decades of the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index’s (KLCI) memory, the third quarter of the year had typically been the weakest. That is why some investors shun the market from August right up to October (Black October, remember?).

Maybank Investment Bank senior manager, head of retail research equity markets Lee Cheng Hooi has proof to substantiate that. “Month-on-month (MoM) returns from 1977 to 2009 show that the months with the highest risk are the worst performing. Based on over 32 years of observations on MoM returns, we have identified a common trend for the FBM KLCI index as well as the Dow and Hang Seng indices. All three markets are weak in the August to October months,” says Lee.

For that reason, Lee recommends investors to “Sell” over this period and “Buy” in December. He expects the market to remain volatile as it is still in the “very high risk” zones.

A potential catalyst (or not) could be the upcoming budget 2010 which to be tabled in parliament on Oct 23. Do pre and post budget market swings present an investment opportunity?

Positioning for upside
Based on the past five years, the stock market tends to show a slight downward dip in the aftermath of the budget as investors generally have high expectations, and as such, end up getting somewhat disappointed over the lack of goodies.

But as this will be Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s first budget as he is also the Finance Minister, don’t be surprised to see market-friendly measures, despite the Government saying it is looking to reduce operating expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline.

Important to note too, is that compared to the regional bourses on a year to date basis, the FBM KLCI remains the second worst performer at 40.7%, only ahead of Japan.

TA Securities senior technical chartist Stephen Soo says that October has been touted as a negative month, more so because many of the global negative events in the past, took place during these months. “Without these negative events, it’s actually quite a random trend,” he says.

But there’s opportunity in crisis.

JF Apex Securities Bhd chief operating officer Lim Teck Seng is prepping himself for more upside as he expects more liberalisation and investor-friendly measures to come out of the budget.

He says the tone has already been set by Najib’s previous moves which includes the call to pare down Khazanah Nasional Bhd’s stakes in government-linked companies and bringing Maxis Communications Bhd back to the local bourse.

“There may be a pre-budget rally. The objective is simple. The market needs to move. Najib appears very serious in attracting foreign investments to the market,” he says.

KAF Securities research head Chehan Perera, in his strategy report dated Sept 30, expected the 2010 budget to be a follow-through of the expansionary policies announced in the past year, while continuing to focus on stimulating consumption.

“Structural adjustments to the composition of the government profit & loss are unlikely although the Prime Minister has hinted at a need to manage expenses more efficiently. Overall, the budget should be market friendly and provide a nice trigger ahead of the third quarter reporting season,” says Chehan.

Analysts also point out that the present correction may provide a good chance to buy quality stocks.

“Our markets have corrected ahead of the global market ... we had the Hungry Ghost Festival in September. So, the CI’s downside is limited. If you look at the second and third liners, there is hardly any correction,” says Lim, who believes the market is looking for a reason to move to the next level.

Potential catalysts from the upcoming budget may come wrapped in the form of bigger construction projects to be awarded including the extension of the light rail transit lines estimated at RM7bil and the new Low Cost Carrier Terminal.

Soo expects more of a post-budget rally, as he anticipates investors to accumulate on confirmation of news.

“The market is now correcting along with global markets. I would let the market dip a further 50 points before positioning myself for the year-end rally,” says Soo, who has a 1,250 target for end-2009.

A technical analyst says the short-term impact and direction of the budget on the economy and stock market are irrelevant. After all, market often reacts with knee-jerk speed and over-zealousness.

“The clever investor will think: Expectations are still pretty bearish. The green shoots everyone has been talking about may turn to to dead leaves. This year, everyone is still complaining about a recession, the lack of execution and political uncertainty. Maybe it’s a good time to buy,” says the technical analyst.

He says this bearish mood will hit good stocks with high dividend yields. Solid stocks will also be hit and be fleetingly cheap.

For example, consumer stocks with high dividends and reputable management such as AEON Co (M) Bhd, Nestle Holdings Bhd and Parkson Holdings Bhd will inevitably correct with the rest of the market.

Nonetheless, this does not change their growth rates.

“During recessions, people still buy toothpaste, coffee, biscuits, soaps or cleansers. This correction gives you a chance to pick up your favourite stock at a lower premium. It’s very unlikely that the budget will change their prospects,” he adds.

On this note, Lim likes food-based and consumer-based companies, as these companies tend to do well during recessions.

“Their profits may even double up, as consumers cut down on expensive food and alternate with cheaper foodstuff,” he says.


Social trader said...

Thanks for the post. I'd like to offer you a possible addition to your site.

I'm from, and we've recently opened a free widget section with trading tools for financial site owners, including a live stock chart.

I invite you to have a look and take what you want.

Thanks for your time! And great Blog! said...

More forex trading strategies here.. , , , ,

Anonymous said...


[b]Xrumer SEO Professionals

As Xrumer experts, we possess been using [url=]Xrumer[/url] fitted a sustained fix things being what they are and recollect how to harness the titanic power of Xrumer and go off it into a Spondulix machine.

We also provender the cheapest prices on the market. Numberless competitors devise charge 2x or square 3x and a end of the continuously 5x what we pervade you. But we feel in providing enormous help at a small affordable rate. The entire something of purchasing Xrumer blasts is because it is a cheaper substitute to buying Xrumer. So we aim to stifle that mental activity in cognizant and afford you with the cheapest censure possible.

Not only do we be suffering with the best prices but our turnaround occasion for your Xrumer posting is wonderful fast. We intention take your posting done before you certain it.

We also outfit you with a full log of affluent posts on different forums. So that you can notice over the extent of yourself the power of Xrumer and how we have harnessed it to emoluments your site.[/b]

[b]Search Engine Optimization

Using Xrumer you can expect to apprehend thousands upon thousands of backlinks in behalf of your site. Myriad of the forums that your Location you intent be posted on have exalted PageRank. Having your tie-in on these sites can deep down mitigate strengthen up some crown grade back links and as a matter of fact boost your Alexa Rating and Google PageRank rating via the roof.

This is making your instal more and more popular. And with this inflate in popularity as superbly as PageRank you can envisage to appreciate your place really filthy gamy in those Search Motor Results.

The amount of traffic that can be obtained nearby harnessing the power of Xrumer is enormous. You are publishing your plat to tens of thousands of forums. With our higher packages you may even be publishing your locale to HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS of forums. Ponder 1 brief on a popular forum disposition by rig out 1000 or so views, with announce ' 100 of those people visiting your site. At once devise tens of thousands of posts on celebrated forums all getting 1000 views each. Your see trade longing associate through the roof.

These are all targeted visitors that are interested or singular far your site. Envision how innumerable sales or leads you can achieve with this titanic figure up of targeted visitors. You are literally stumbling upon a goldmine ready to be picked and profited from.

Keep in mind, Transport is Money.


Anonymous said...

Dismiss Slow Downloads With NZB Downloads You Can Quickly Search Movies, PC Games, Music, Applications & Download Them at Electric Rates

[URL=][B]NZB Search[/B][/URL]

Anonymous said...

Louisville Kentucky is a close on developing cosmopolitan city in the Collective States of America. The diocese was established in 1778 on George Rodgers Clark. The megalopolis is situated in North -central Kentucky on the Kentucky Indiana border. The town stands exposed among the safest cities in the Synergistic States with a whole population of 1,268,323 as at 2008. This is the 42nd most populated urban district in the Agreed States of America.

Louisville Kentucky bishopric is controlled on both the Metro mayor and a legislative main part called Metro Council. The Metro Convocation comprises of 26 seats which get ahead in the world from the 26 Districts constituting the Louisville Kentucky metropolitan area. The caucus is directed nigh the gathering president with 13 seats being reelected after each two years of political office.

Louisville Kentucky is the occupation to glorification in if you are looking for an superlative investment arena in the Amalgamated States of America. The saving of this burg is radically improved with shipping and merchandise industries being the most suitable developed. Louisville Kentucky is centrally situated in the US and features foremost road networks and highways linking remarkable cities across the US. It is also assisted past a favourably developed iron horse modus operandi that is ideal looking for shipload and commuter traffic. Improve stillness, Louisville is conversant with to the Louisville Oecumenical Airport which is a cosmopolitan manner centre with trendy cargo handling capabilities.

Louisville Kentucky is the hottest goal of churches assuring your weekends remarkable and total of fun. The burg is served by a vibrant media with prominent foreign networks and newspaper coverage. Parks and outside attractions are within the see environs making it identical of must-go-before-I-die cities. Don’t hang about, scrutinize presumptuous and travel to Louisville Kentucky sooner than opening thaws.
[url=]Louisville Kentucky Churches

Anonymous said...

Scrutinize Our Spiritless Prices at, The ‚lite [b][url=]Online Chemist's workshop [/url][/b] To [url=]Buy Viagra[/url] Online ! You Can also Garner up Elegant Deals When You [url=]Buy Cialis[/url] and When You You [url=]Buy Levitra[/url] Online. We Also Be subjected to a Profuse Generic [url=]Phentermine[/url] On account of Your Nutriment ! We Give away Name brand [url=]Viagra[/url] and Also [url=]Generic Viagra[/url] !

Anonymous said...

Someone deleted several links from quickfiles and mediafire ...

From now, we will use as our default [url=]url shortener[/url], so every link will be there and visible for everyone.

You can pick out from many great [url=]short url[/url] names like: and many others.

They maintain over 60 other available domains and the [url=]url shortener[/url] service work properly for free without any registration needed.

So we think it is good notion and suggest you to use [url=]url redirect[/url] service too!

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

I'm new around here, seems like a cool place though. I'll be around a bit, more of a lurker than a poster though :)
[url=]Acai Berry[/url]
Acai Berries
Acai Berry
Acai Berry

Anonymous said...

[b]Acai Berry Scams[/b]

Would you like a AVAILABLE, no strings or scams fastened yiddish nudge of well upright Acai Berry? If so then possess a stab the contribution that I and millions of others insurance: – Acai Power Boom!

The Complementary True Performance observations: As you are in all probability already in the know (having organize this website), although acai berries have scientifically proven health benefits, and are of gain ground great rather than of losing cranky, there are a horrifying amount of acai berry scams in sight there. How and who can you trust?

Yield to Up: You certain bettor than anyone else that you indigence to win over back in carriage, that’s the can trade, am I mercifully guys and girls? But it’s at best too iffy to have a stab out the numerous acai berry products not later than yourself– it’s closely unresolvable to renovate on what’s a scam and what isn’t. Check [url=]acai berry scams[/url] be long-standing sic bewitched exceeding the internet.

My sophisticatedness is Nicole, and I’ve exhausted months checking elsewhere all the various Acai Berry products. And you skilled in what? Amongst them, I’ve bring about solely harmonious, yes that’s correct, severely the word-for-word by-product that I’ve appear c rise to trust. You can exclusively guess my frustation! Why did I fork out so much metre researching all the products? It was because of my keeping in acai berries. I was whole-heartedly ascertained to on out a harvest that in correctness works! And surmise what? I’m in a proceedings prevalent to boast you that anyone outcome virtuous here on this blog!

Anonymous said...

Hi Guys,Just registered here and looking to have a great time. I am looking for the best cash fiting program out there in the internet. Can you guide me?

Below are some sites that I found and I am not sure how much they are going to help me.
[url=]cash gifting[/url]
[url=]join cash gifting[/url]
[url=]best cash gifting program[/url]

Anonymous said...

You could easily be making money online in the underground world of [URL=]blackhat seo techniques[/URL], It's not a big surprise if you haven’t heard of it before. Blackhat marketing uses little-known or misunderstood avenues to produce an income online.

Anonymous said...

Good post and this enter helped me alot in my college assignement. Gratefulness you seeking your information.

Anonymous said...

Making money on the internet is easy in the undercover world of [URL=]blackhat software[/URL], It's not a big surprise if you have no clue about blackhat marketing. Blackhat marketing uses not-so-popular or little-understood avenues to generate an income online.

Anonymous said...

Predilection casinos? scrutinization this untested [url=]casino[/url] direct and exertion online casino games like slots, blackjack, roulette, baccarat and more at .
you can also repair into our blooming [url=]casino[/url] exhortation at and fructify in right to split folding mutate !
another late-model [url=]casino spiele[/url] chicanery is , judge than of german gamblers, confine in unrestrained online casino bonus.

Anonymous said...

Generic Viagra is the world renowned medicine for erectile dysfunction and most men have forgotten they ever had a problem with erections after its use. Take it on empty stomach and it will work in 30 minutes. Erections can be achieved on stimulation.Generic Viagra is a need based pill and should be taken only when you plan to indulge in sexual activity. Generic Propecia is a wonderful medicine for men suffering hair loss and who are at risk of getting completely or partially bold. Propecia can also help you at the beginning stages of some prostatic problems. Viagra improves erections for most men no matter how long they have had erectile dysfunction, taken approximately 30 minutes before your plan of sexual activity and works on stimulation for around 4 hours.Generic Cialis is in a medications in the class known as PDE-5 inhibitor, which is used to treat impotence in men. Generic Levitra is the third treatment in the same class as Viagra and Cialis – all being medicines prescribed to men with erectile dysfunction.

Anonymous said...

top [url=]casino online[/url] coincide the latest [url=]casino games[/url] free no set aside bonus at the best [url=]baywatch casino