Wednesday, November 21, 2007

KLCI, 1300 Sustainable?

Be prepare for posibility. The View of Bursa fall.
Intermediate support 1340.
Important support 1320 (Must hold up strong)
If 1320 breakdown, expect 1280 - 1260 is the target.
Note: MACD is generating a Decending Triangle (bearish signal).
Good Luck!

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Xpress Flight Boarding Time!

MEMSBEST BUY! 0.65 - 0.68
Target 0.95, 1.10. Stop Loss:0.63

HUBLINE BEST BUY! 0.76-0.80
Target 0.95, 1.15. Stop Loss: 0.75

LIONIND BEST BUY! 2.00 - 2.10
Target 2.60, 3.20. Stop Loss: 2.00


Happy Trading and Good Luck !

Friday, September 28, 2007

Stock2Trade (MEMS, EDEN, RCECAP)

MEMSUpside momentum still strong! Need to test 0.70 soon.
Wait till profit taking and buy as long as can stay above 0.65.
Target 0.80, 1.20. Support 0.58

EDENSeem like showing same strength like MEMS. I guess :-)
Now should be good for low risk entry.
Target 1.20. Support 0.85.

RCECAP
Good buying now. My favorite stock :-)
Target 1.3x. Support 0.89

Happy Trading!

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Ranhill Oil Power!

Potential the most beneficially from high oil price and new oil discovery make ranhill share price an attractive new high discovery. Positive view if the price can stay above RM3.00. Medium term target RM6.00. Believe it or NOT? Let the market decide for us. Good Luck !

Monday, September 17, 2007

DJI Chart Preview : 17-Sep-07

What to expect? Fed rate decision will be out tomorow. In term of DJI chart, I would say upward bias if the index can stay above 13350 and next 13280-13250. Once index penerate this two key important support. Downward pressure will be high! Good Luck!

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Boarding Time? (HUBLINE, SILVER)

HUBLINE Will it be the FLAG pattern formation?
14-Sep will see whether it up or down next week.
To go up it must at least close above 0.705.

SILVER SILVER is close to breakout point which is at 0.45.
I expect 14-Sep will close above 0.44.
If so than the run will reach 0.55-0.60 soon.
Just to be optimistic. :-)

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

DJI Chart Preview : 11-Sep-07

DJI resistance: 13200. Breakout: 13280. Yesterday closing DJI is testing the support at 13120 level. If this level cannot hold, we still have hope at 13100. Since the MACD is going down. I expect tonight DJI will down 1st and hope it will pick up from 13100 level. For new sell-down to occur again, do watch 13000 - 13050 level. Well if this breakdown.....Good Luck!

Monday, September 10, 2007

Fed Rate Cut Can Help Market?

Analyst: Fed rate cut won't help markets
Lower interest rates will not bring in money but instead send dollar into a tailspin, says Punk Ziegel banking analyst.

NEW YORK (AP) -- A widely watched banking analyst said late Sunday the best solution to the crisis plaguing financial markets is to let cash-strapped borrowers default and their lenders go bankrupt, rather than slashing interest rates.

Punk Ziegel & Co. analyst Richard X. Bove wrote in a client report the hoped-for cut in interest rates this month will do nothing to bring money back into the U.S. financial markets. Instead, Bove said, lower interest rates will send the dollar into a tailspin and wreak havoc in the job market.

Many investors believe the Federal Reserve will cut its target for interest rates next week by at least 25 basis points, from the current benchmark 5.25 percent federal funds rate.

Investors have clamored for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to cut rates to stabilize financial markets, which have been in turmoil since July amid decaying credit quality and a flight to safer investments like Treasury bonds.

Bove cautioned that cutting rates will not lure investors back into troubled markets. Investors and banks already have the cash to buy risky loans and investments, he said.

"There is no liquidity problem, but a serious crisis of confidence," Bove said. "In a financial system where there is ample liquidity and a desire for higher rates to compensate for risk, the solution is not to create more liquidity and lower the rates that are available to compensate for risk. ... (The Fed) cannot reduce fear by stimulating inflation."

In fact, cutting interest rates will only encourage investors to borrow dollars at the lower rate and bring the cash to places like Europe, Bove said.

"It is illogical to assume that holders of cash will have a strong desire to lend money at low rates in a currency that is declining in value when they can take these same funds and lend them at high rates in a currency that is gaining in value," he said. "By lowering interest rates the Federal Reserve will not stimulate economic growth or create jobs. It will crash the currency, stimulate inflation, and weaken the economy and the job markets."

Bove said the solution to this crisis is to allow people who cannot repay their debts to default and allow the companies that issued bad loans to fail.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Stock2Trade (TIMECOM, HUBLINE, DISTECH)

Potential Strong Runner!!!!

TIMECOM Short-term TP: 1.35, Support 1.01
HUBLINE Short-tem TP: 1.00, Support 0.65
DISTECH Short-term TP: 0.65, Support 0.35

Happy Trading !

EMOTION MANAGEMENT

Extract from the chat about emotion, patient and greed. Your profit and losses direction is determine by them. Try to control and manage them as best as you can.

FKLI Intraday EOD : 07-Sep-07

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Stock2Trade (MYCOM, SILVER, RCECAP, NAMFATT)

As per today chating with red bull, richman, showers and lowyat82 -- as per my preferences I would say :-) . After checkout on TA, I come on conclusion I would prefer MYCOM and SILVER.


MYCOM
Almost going to breakout at 1.36.
EMA is going to crossover.
Target 1.55, 1.70. Support 1.17.


SILVER

Breakout point: 0.45, EMA going to crossover.
Target: 0.55, 0.70. Support: 0.37


RCECAP Breakout point: 1.00, EMA not yet crossover.
I would suggest sell at resistance @ 1.00. Support 0.80


NAMFATT Breakout point: 0.93, EMA not yet crossover.
Suggest sell at breakout point @ 0.93. Support 0.67

Monday, September 03, 2007

Stock2Trade (LIIHEN, SURIA)

LIIHEN: Support: 1.17, TP: 1.55 - 1.60
SURIA: Support: 1.54, TP: 1.85 - 1.90

Happy Trading!

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Ten Year Cycle of Market Crashes?

The market crash in 2007

The recent heavy sell-down on the bond and stock markets caught a lot of retail and institutional investors by surprise. What appeared to be a haven in investment like the bond market was still subject to panic selling from institutional investors.

We believe the crash in the bond market was mainly due to the withdrawal of some foreign funds. As a result of tight liquidity, unwinding of yen carry trade and potential high losses in some hedge funds, some foreign funds might have been forced to withdraw their investments from the Asia-Pacific market.

The plummet in our stock market was mainly due to the fear of sharp drops in the US, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan markets.

Even though our banking institutions were not really affected by the US subprime issues, the international contagion and fear of more crashes, margin calls and panic selling from retailers caused heavy losses on Bursa Malaysia.

Nevertheless, the magnitude of our losses was far less than those in the regional markets.

The market crash in 1987/8

The market crash in October 1987 was partly attributed to strong market performance of most markets during the first nine months of the year. For example, the US market experienced more than 30% increase during the nine-month period.

However, from Oct 12 to 16, the Dow Index tumbled by 9.5%. On Black Monday of Oct 19, it plunged 22.6%, or 508 points, within a day. It was the largest single fall since 1929, in both absolute and percentage terms.

In Malaysia, the KL Composite Index (KLCI) tumbled by 12.4% on Black Monday. As a result of the overnight crash in US, the KLCI plunged another 15.7% the next trading day.

The market crash in 1997/8

The Asian stock market crash of 1997/98 began with a currency crisis in July in Thailand and quickly spread to neighbouring nations. One by one, overheated markets crashed in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea. This was mostly due to the rapid industrialisation in these countries.

The US market was affected by the turmoil in Asia. Its share prices began to collapse at the beginning of October 1997. On Oct 27, the Dow Index tumbled by 554 points, or 7.2%, within a day. However, it recovered by recording a rise of 337 points the next day.

In Malaysia, the KLCI tumbled from 1,231 points in the beginning of 1997 to the low of 262 on Sept 1, 1998, representing a total percentage drop of 78.7%.

Comparing the three market crashes, the KLCI suffered its biggest daily drop of 21.5% on Sept 8, 1998. The crashes in 1997/8 and 1987/8 were also far more severe than our recent market crash.

We are not too sure whether we have seen the worst of the crash in 2007. However, the sell-down has caused a big disruption in our uptrend momentum. It appears to be quite difficult for the KLCI to touch the recent peak of 1,392 again.

Any market rebounds may prompt fund managers to continue offloading their equity exposure. Most of big losses in 1997/8 and 1987/8 happened in October.

As we can only know the actual exposure of the subprime issues for most of the US financial institutions when they report their third quarter results in early October, we are expecting some market volatility in that month.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Stock2Trade (ENCORP, EBWORX, GADANG)

ENCORP Buy only when price stay above 1.51-1.55.
Target 1.75-1.80. Support 1.30.


EBWORX

Buy only when price stay above 0.55.
Target 0.68 - 0.80. Support 0.43.


GADANG
Buy only when price stay above 1.08.
Target 1.32, 1.52. Support 0.98.


Do remember, we are now trade stock on rebound. There will be a sharp pullback once the traget is hit. Most of the market player still very cautions due to the subprime and credit crunch issues. All the best!

Read News And Do Your Home Work!

Recorded posting by showers and lowyat82. Good advice! I myself also using such methods. Reading news and study the counter in terms of FA and TA (but I mostly focus on TA). You can decide to buy or sell in two senario: 'sell on news/weakness' or 'buy on news/strength'.


Happy Trading!

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern

Most of the counter today breakout from the inverted head and shoulder pattern formed between 06-Aug-07 till yesterday. Below is the sample stock for the IH&S pattern (JAKS and L&G)


Saturday, August 18, 2007

Stock2Trade : Strong Upside Detected!

I has been monitoring a few stocks during the sell-down periods. It came out a few list of stocks that has potential to move higher in coming weeks or months. Do monitor them.


L&G, RBLAND,
JAKS, HDISPLY
TIMECOM, KPS,
AMDB, KHSB,
KONSORT, MMM


All the best!

KLCI : 1141 Bottom?

Which correction pattern KLCI is heading? Can any one comments?
Well I would say KLCI yet to find the bottom!
ZigZag and Triangle is Prefered (downward bias).
Good Luck!

Another Day of Heartbreak for Investors!

PETALING JAYA: There was no solace for heartbroken investors yesterday.

Markets tumbled across the region on the last trading day of the week, with the Nikkei-225 index losing a massive 5.42% to 15,273.68, the Hang Seng Index closed 285.26 points, or 1.4%, lower at 20,387.13, the Kospi index fell 53.91 points, or 3.1%, to 1,638.07, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 108.87 points, or 2.28%, at 4,656.57.

In overnight trading Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average, which was down as much as 343 points at one point, managed to rebound to close only 15.7 points lower at 12,846.

On the home front, the benchmark KL Composite Index (KLCI) plunged 16.06 points to 1,191.55 after falling 80.73 points over the previous two consecutive trading days.

Down 66.05 points shortly after the opening of the afternoon session, the KLCI bounced back from oversold territory.

Analysts and investors said the drop was again mainly due to external factors, with many Malaysian corporates continuing to be backed by strong earnings.

TA Securities chartist Stephen Soo attributed the drop in share prices on Bursa Malaysia, especially in the morning, to big “margin selling” as well as “programme selling” by US hedge funds.

“We feel that it is already overdone,” he said.

While the market would continue to be volatile, Soo said it would hold at the 1,138 and 1,078-point support levels.

It was too early to call a bear market, he said, adding: “The bull is injured but the long-term uptrend is still intact.”

An economist at a local bank-backed brokerage said the US lending woes would take some more time to unwind.

“It is not yet the end-game for a couple of weeks,” he said.

Capital market problems aside, he said the world economy remained strong.

In its April 2007 World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund had revised upwards its projections for global gross domestic product growth for 2007 and 2008 to 5.2% each from 4.9%, he said.

With global markets continuing to search for liquidity as risk-averse investors switch to cash and op out of the credit creation system, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) made an unscheduled rate cut yesterday.

Bloomberg reported that the Fed reduced the rate at which it made direct loans to banks, known as the discount rate, by 0.5 percentage point to 5.75%.

It, however, held the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%.

Meanwhile, the yen hit 111.6 to the greenback yesterday, its highest in nine years, largely attributed to unwinding of yen carry trades.

An economist at a local brokerage had said that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might not intervene on the rising yen.

It is likely the BoJ is betting on domestic investors to trade down the yen by buying US dollars as happened in previous occasions of strong yen appreciation.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Fed Cuts Discount Rate

Text of Federal Reserve Policy Statements

Text of Federal Reserve statements Friday:

Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably. The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.

Voting in favor of the policy announcement were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.

To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate to 50 basis points. The Board is also announcing a change to the Reserve Banks' usual practices to allow the provision of term financing for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower. These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially. These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding. The Federal Reserve will continue to accept a broad range of collateral for discount window loans, including home mortgages and related assets. Existing collateral margins will be maintained. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco.

On the Net: http://federalreserve.gov/

Thursday, August 16, 2007

KLCI : Strong Rebound Is Due

In order to continue a downward momentum, a strong rebound is needed. Our KLCI has reach FR 61.8% today. A sharp sell down - impulse wave starting from 1390 till 1200 has taken place (red line) which should be the area of stop place* for EW Zigzag (5-3-5 : A,B,C) correction pattern in bearish market. Well, sooner or later the rebound wave will going to take place in order to form a B pattern (green line) and could reach to 1300 - 1320. Once this level is reach, beware of C pattern which can also be a sharp sell-down impulse wave and could reach to 1090 - 1100 (the wave will depend later on overall market sentiment). Good Luck!

Monday, August 13, 2007

KPS vs MRCB

KPS KPS is trending counter.
During sell down the price still stay above 14EMA.
This is good sign that the price will recover faster.
My target is 3.20, 3.50. Support 2.72.

MRCB

Today news about PORR project take over by MRCB is just a little spark. From the chart, the price still trending below 40EMA. This suggest further downtrend is possible for MRCB.
In near term, I would avoid this counter until the price can taken out RM3.00 convincely.

Asian Has Liquidity! Malaysia Still Strong!

Malaysia Maintains 6.0 Percent GDP Growth Forecast, Says Abdullah
http://www.biznewsdb.com/english/newspage/newspage.asp?ID=7081382&file1=7&bulan=08&kw=wwqq

Asian Central Banks Refrain From Extra Cash Injection
http://www.biznewsdb.com/english/newspage/newspage.asp?ID=70813115&file1=7&bulan=08&kw=wwqq

Malaysia Has Sufficient Liquidity To Withstand US Subprime Impact
http://www.biznewsdb.com/english/newspage/newspage.asp?ID=7081384&file1=7&bulan=08&kw=wwqq

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Scary Headline, Does It Really Matter?

FKLI Intraday EOD: 10-Aug-07

I go LONG at 1235.

Credit Issues Widespread ! Stock Plunge !

Asia central banks join bid to calm money markets

HONG KONG/SINGAPORE, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Central banks from Tokyo to Sydney injected extra cash into banking systems or pledged to do so on Friday, as Asia joined a global campaign by monetary authorities to calm panicky credit markets.

The Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia added more money than usual to prevent short-term rates from spiking, albeit on a much smaller scale than the European Central Bank's (ECB) record 94.8 billion euro injection on Thursday.

"What the central banks are doing is a concerted effort to inject liquidity. And the worrying thing is that they do that when the system is not functioning the way it should," said Jimmy Koh, a currency strategist at United Overseas Bank.

At the same time, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines intervened in markets to support their currencies by selling dollars, traders said, as escalating credit market worries hit risky assets around the region.

The moves came after the ECB pumped a record amount of cash into Europe's money markets to make sure that European banks had adequate short-term funds for lending. The U.S. Federal Reserve followed suit on a smaller scale.

The trigger was news that France's biggest-listed bank, BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile , Research), had frozen $2.2 billion worth of funds hit by U.S. subprime mortgage woes.

Investors fear the damage caused by the U.S. subprime meltdown runs deeper than originally estimated and will put an even tighter squeeze on credit markets worldwide.

"This month is going to turn out to be a horrific month for hedge funds in particular," said Jay Moghe, managing director at Opes Prime Asset Management in Singapore.

"Aside from the subprime exposure that a minority of funds have, the entire industry including the staple long/short managers will be affected adversely by the vicious volatility.

"A Bank of Japan official said the bank injected funds at its regular money market operation on Friday due to a slight rise in the benchmark overnight call rate.

The bank for the world's second-largest economy offered to supply 1.0 trillion yen ($8.45 billion) in funds. Traders said the amount was at the higher end of market expectations, but was not a major surprise.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Friday added more than twice the usual amount of money into the banking system, injecting A$4.95 billion ($4.19 billion) in its regular morning money market operation.

The injections were done to ensure there were enough funds for money markets to operate smoothly and to prevent short-term rates from spiking. Analysts saw the measures as part of central banks' mandate to ensure markets function properly and did not represent a shift in monetary policy.

While no reports had surfaced in Asia of a drying up of credit markets on par with the problems in Europe, financial markets took a battering.

Asian stocks slumped across the board and the yen extended its gains as investors dumped riskier assets following a rout in global markets sparked by a flare-up in credit jitters. The flight to safety shored up Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and U.S. Treasuries, sending yields down.

Elsewhere in the region, central banks pledged to open the tap on the first signs of a seizure in money markets.

The Bank of Korea's head of monetary policy, Jang Byung-wha, told Reuters on Friday the central bank was ready to take steps to maintain stability in the local financial system, such as supplying extra funds, if a credit crunch arises.

South Korean financial policy makers plan to hold a meeting later on Friday to assess the current financial market situation.

Singapore's central bank also said that it was ready to inject cash if needed, but noted it was sticking to its existing monetary policy.

"If there are liquidity bottlenecks, certainly we will come in to inject more liquidity. At this stage, the liquidity management is unchanged that we do not see any undue problems," Ong Chong Tee, deputy managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, told a news conference.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

FKLI Intraday EOD : 09-Aug-07

Short or Long?
Well, I will look for opportunity to go long tomorrow.
Hope my assumption is right.

Monday, August 06, 2007

Stock2Trade (JAKS, KHSB)

JAKS
Make sure the support 0.80 is strong.
If this support is strong you can safely buy in here.
Short-term target 1.45.


KHSB
Support 0.85-0.90. Buy only if this level can hold.
Short-term target 1.50.
Happy Trading!

FKLI Intraday EOD : 06-Aug-07

Looks like MACD going to have golden cross soon.
Possible can go Long tomorrow.

Saturday, August 04, 2007

FKLI Intraday EOD : 03-Aug-07

Short all the way down! Happy trading!

KLCI - Very Weak!

KLCI struggle to stay above 28.6% FR for the 2nd time (above 1320).
The 1st time hit was in May 2007. If this support cannot hold well,
high possible the next dive will be at 38.2% FR (1278).
This is our last hope for bull to defence the bear attack.
The bull will die once 38.2% is breakdown! Hope this will not happen.
All the best to our market!

Friday, July 13, 2007

FKLI Intraday EOD : 13-Jul-07

UEMBLDR - Wild Ride Soon


Worth to monitor.
A breakout from 1.85 will make this counter wild!
Support around 1.70, Target price 2.30 - 2.90.

Banner Day for The Dow!

Dow surges 284 points, closing above 13,800 for first time, on aluminum merger, upbeat retail sales numbers.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow soared about 280 points to a record close Thursday, posting its biggest gain in nearly 5 years, on a flurry of takeover activity and some upbeat retail sales numbers.

The Dow (up 283.86 to 13,861.73) surged nearly 284 points, or 2.1 percent, its biggest one-day point gain since October 15, 2002, when the Dow climbed more than 378 points.

So far this year, the Dow is up 11.2 percent.

The broader S&P 500 (up 28.94 to 1,547.70) also finished in record territory after climbing 1.9 percent, eclipsing its prior record hit June 4.

The tech-laden Nasdaq (up 49.94 to 2,701.73) followed, soaring about 1.9 percent on the day.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

Asian Economies Show Growth!

Asian economies show growth, stability 10 years after crisis
Updated : 05-07-2007 Media : The Edge

Asian economies have recovered their growth and stability, 10 years since the Asian financial crisis, sparked by the Thai baht's devaluation in July 1997, Moody's Investors Service said on July 5.

The crisis resulted in the region's economies and markets experiencing huge downturns and shake-outs in confidence.

However, some of the hallmarks of this new landscape include supportive macro-economic factors, such as record foreign exchange reserves, current account surpluses and moderate inflation, Moody's said.

"Regulation and corporate governance have improved, while foreign exchange regimes have become much more flexible," it said.

Furthermore, the region's banking systems have undergone significant changes, including achievement of the healthiest credit metrics in a decade and the establishment of more sophisticated and rigorous risk management systems, it added.

Moody's ratings for individual banking systems in Asia are either stable or stable to positive.

A replay of 1997 is unlikely, given the changes which have occurred. It was also important to note that Asia had overcome other shocks since July 1997, including the tech meltdown in 2000, the terrorist attacks of September 11, the Bali bombings, the SARS scare and more recently bird flu.

However, while there was much to feel good about, complacency and searches for new paradigms need to be eschewed, it said.

"Structural deficiencies remain," it said, adding that reforms must continue.

Friday, June 29, 2007

CBSTECH: How Far Can It Run?

The bull is still charging !
Current price level is good opportunity for accumulation.
Support 0.61, 0.57 Target 0.76, 0.90.

FKLI Intraday EOD : 29-Jun-07

Market should be able to pick up next week.
I hold my LONG position today!